Despite only finishing with two points, Croatia can still advance to the Euro 2024 knockout stages if certain things go their way.

Croatia would have automatically qualified for the round of 16 if Luka Modric’s goal in the second half had allowed them to overtake Italy and move up to second position in Group B.

However, Italy’s equaliser in the 97th minute, provided by Mattia Zaccagni, ensured that they advanced automatically at the expense of their opponents.

With a goal differential of minus three, Croatia’s two points at the end of their group campaign will probably not be enough to advance them to the round of 16. Out of the six top-seeded teams, four will advance.

Zlatko Dalic’s team will now anxiously watch the remaining games to determine their fate, but there is a particular sequence of outcomes that would enable them to advance against all odds.

Luckily, Croatia is currently ahead of Czechia in fifth position, but they still have a match to play in Group F.

Their mission is made much more difficult by the fact that, by virtue of earning three points, the third-place teams in Group A—which is already confirmed to be Hungary—as well as Group D and Group E will all undoubtedly finish ahead of them.

However, Croatia may still be able to find support in Groups C and F.

Even if Serbia and Slovenia lose against Denmark and England respectively, Dalic’s team can still place higher than Slovenia, who would take third place.

However, in order to pass Slovenia in the third-place standings, they would have to lose by a margin greater than three goals, or precisely 3-0, in order to finish ahead of them in terms of goals scored. Denmark would then need to defeat Serbia.

In the meantime, Croatia would finish ahead of them both if Georgia and Czechia lost against Portugal and Turkey in Group F, limiting them to one point each. But the two permutations mentioned above have to occur.

Overall, it seems likely that Croatia won’t advance to the next round of the tournament; yet, stranger things have happened in the history of football tournaments.